Aetna's Policy Shift: How "Approved" Inpatient Claims Could Cost You Millions
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Aetna's Policy Shift: How "Approved" Inpatient Claims Could Cost You Millions

Red text How Approved*(Observation Rates May Apply) Inpatient Claims Could Cost You Millions with a black clock background

The expansion of the Two-Midnight Rule into Medicare Advantage plans was supposed to be a win for hospitals. Just over a year ago, revenue cycle leaders were cautiously optimistic as CMS had mandated(in 42 CFR 422.101) that MA plans follow the same inpatient admission criteria as traditional Medicare. The rule promised to level the playing field: If the stay spans two midnights, or is expected to, it qualifies as inpatient.

And for a brief moment, it worked. Inpatient admissions rose 3.9% year-over-year. Hospitals saw long-overdue reimbursement for the care they were already providing. Finance leaders across the country noted the shift. But now, Aetna may have found a way around it.

3.9% YOY Increase in inpatient admissions(Q1 of 2023)

3.7% YOY increase in inpatient revenue(Q1 of 2023)

-5.1% YOY decrease in outpatient volume(Q1 of 2023)

Starting November 15, 2025, Aetna will automatically approve inpatient admissions for emergent or urgent Medicare Advantage cases that span at least one midnight. That might sound like progress: no more front-end denials and no more endless peer-to-peer calls.

But there's a catch, if the case doesn’t meet the Milliman Care Guidelines(MCG) for inpatient criteria, it’ll still be automatically approved...but only paid at observation-level rates.

And perhaps most importantly, there will be no formal denial to appeal. No peer-to-peer. No notification. Just a payment quietly marked "complete" on your 835. The underpayment will simply appear on your remittance advice, and the billing system will treat the shortfall as a “contractual adjustment”—treating it as if the inpatient claim was fully reimbursed.

In other words, the revenue loss won’t even trigger your standard denial workflows. It will silently undermine reimbursement without raising red flags.


Industry-Wide Implications: Masking Underpayment as Compliance


Aetna frames this as a move toward efficiency: avoiding delays, reducing provider burden, and removing the need to rebill as observation. But functionally, it enables plans to approve admissions while paying less, all while sidestepping the intent of the Two-Midnight Rule: protecting hospitals from inappropriate denials and revenue leakage.

This approach replaces transparency and due process with automation and opacity. It takes the fight out of the front end and buries the underpayment in your back-end reporting.

For finance and revenue leaders, this is a significant concern. The difference between full inpatient reimbursement and observation rates is not trivial. And when that gap is recorded as a contractual adjustment, it won’t surface in typical denial or variance reporting. You’ll only see it if you’re actively reconciling expected versus actual payment at the claim level.

This concern is amplified by the broader financial pressures facing hospitals today. With many facilities at risk of closure or service reduction, payment policies that erode reimbursement for legitimate inpatient care could have far-reaching consequences, not just for revenue cycle performance, but for access to care and quality outcomes across the board.


What to Do Now

While this policy currently only applies to Aetna's Medicare Advantage and Special Needs Plans, if other MA plans adopt similar approaches, the impact will be felt nationwide, as 1.3% of inpatient revenue could vanish. Roughly 17% of MA inpatient claims are initially denied, and while 60% of those are currently overturned, that revenue will no longer be easily recovered. What was supposed to protect hospital reimbursement becomes a framework for systematic underpayment.


To avoid being caught off guard:

  • Flag high-risk claims: Modify billing systems to surface inpatient MA claims that are approved but paid at observation-level rates. These won’t show up in typical denial workflows but must be treated as financial exceptions.

  • Strengthen documentation: Make sure providers and case managers understand MCG criteria and how to clearly document inpatient-level care. When appeals are no longer available, documentation becomes your only line of defense.

  • Review payer contracts: Understand your dispute rights and escalation paths under Aetna’s policies. Prepare managed care and legal teams for payment challenges, not just denial rebuttals.

  • Monitoring and Analysis: Track the financial impact systematically to build a compelling case for policy reversal and to inform future contract negotiations.

  • Object directly to Aetna and CMS before this becomes precedent for other payers

And most importantly, don’t assume approved = appropriate. The absence of a denial doesn’t mean the payment is correct.


The Clock Is Ticking


This policy takes effect in just three months. It won’t come with a press release or a denial letter. It will show up quietly on your 835—marked “paid in full,” but falling far short of what’s owed. The time to prepare, object, and protect your revenue is now, before this approach becomes the new normal.

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Curious how this plays out in your organization?

We’ll walk through what we’re seeing across hospitals and how Cofactor can help fix it.

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